For information only - not an official document
6 September 2016
Re-issued as received
Global manufacturing growth expected to remain low in 2016 amid weakened financial support, says UNIDO report
VIENNA, 5 September (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) - World manufacturing growth is expected to remain low in 2016 due to weakened financial support for productive activities, according to a report released today by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).
The report states that, with financial uncertainty still looming across Europe, foreign direct investment has not yet reached the 2007 pre-crisis level.
According to UNIDO, world manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.8 per cent in 2016. The current trend indicates that, in contrast to recent years, there will be no breakout from the low-growth trap in 2016. Manufacturing production is likely to rise by 1.3 per cent in industrialized countries and by 4.7 per cent in developing economies.
By the end of 2016, the growth rate performance of China, the world's largest manufacturer, is likely to further decline from last year's 7.1 per cent to to 6.5 per cent this year. Similarly, downward growth rate trends are expected in Japan, Europe, and the United States.
The report contains expected annual growth rate estimates for 2016, as well as observed growth rates for the second quarter of this year.
According to UNIDO, lower industrial growth rates pose a challenge for the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 9, which aims to significantly raise the share of manufacturing in the economies of developing countries.
World manufacturing output rose by 2.2 per cent in the second quarter compared to the same period in the previous year. Most of the growth was contributed by developing and emerging industrial economies where manufacturing output rose by 4.9 per cent. In industrialized countries growth was marginal at 0.2 per cent.
In Europe, the uncertainty following the United Kingdom's "Brexit" vote to leave the European Union affected the growth rate performance in manufacturing in the second quarter of 2016, below 1.0 per cent for the first time since 2013. Lower growth was also observed in the Russian Federation and the United States, where manufacturing output rose at the marginal rate of 1.0 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively. In Japan manufacturing output fell by 1.8 per cent.
Among Latin American economies, manufacturing output fell by 3.2 per cent in the second quarter, amid a continuing production decline in the region. Manufacturing output plunged by 6.7 per cent in Brazil, and by 4.2 per cent in Argentina.
Asian countries largely maintained higher growth rates. Manufacturing output rose by 5.6 per cent in Indonesia, 3.9 per cent in Malaysia and 13.5 per cent in Viet Nam. However, the growth figures showed a sudden 0.7 per cent drop in production in India.
Estimates from the limited available data showed that manufacturing output rose by 2.5 per cent in Africa. South Africa, the continent's largest manufacturer, significantly improved its growth performance to 3.3 per cent in the second quarter. Higher growth rates of 8.3 per cent and 7.6 per cent were achieved in Cameron and Senegal.
The UNIDO report also presents growth estimates by manufacturing sectors. The production of tobacco fell for the second consecutive quarter, declining by 2.6 per cent. Developing economies maintained higher growth in the production of textiles, chemical products and fabricated metal products, while the growth performance of industrialized economies was higher in the pharmaceutical industry and in production of motor vehicles.
The full report is available here.
UNIDO regularly releases the statistics on current growth trends of global manufacturing at country and regional level.
UNIDO maintains an international industrial statistical database in accordance with the mandate of the United Nations Statistics Commission. Data can be downloaded through online access or obtained through CD products and publications.
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For more information, please contact:
UNIDO Chief Statistician